prediction - Weblog Alex Reuneker

David F. Cameron Prediction

03 November 2020 — Posted in Hardlopen by Alex

I have added a calculator that uses David Cameron's (1998) formula published for Statistical Services of A. C. Nielsen Co.

enter image description here Cameron prediction calculator

Cameron used a number of times of world-level athletes from 400M to 50 Miles in a non-linear regression model to predict race times. I'll present the formula below.

predicted time = (time_in/distance_in)distance_out((13.49681-0.000030363distance_in+ 835.7114/distance_in0.7905)/(13.49681-0.000030363distance_out+835.7114/distance_out0.7905)

Here, time_in is the known time from a known distance in seconds, distance_in is the distance in meters you put in. Distance_out is the distance in meters you want to predict the time of (predicted time, or time_out).

On the calculator page, you can just select your own time at a certain distance and predict your time for another distance without any statistical knowledge.

For more information, see the following links.

https://www.cs.uml.edu/~phoffman/cammod.html https://www.goandrace.com/en/race-time-predictor.php https://www.chatnrun.nl/calculator/faq/rp.php https://www.swimbikerun.net.nz/Calculators/RunningExpectationsCalculator

Riegel's race prediction

27 September 2018 — Posted in Hardlopen by Alex

I have added the famous Riegel race prediction, based on the formula below.

Predicted time = Given time * (new distance/original distance)^1.06

Easy, right? You can check out the calculator now. Of course, be cautious in using its output. It's nice to predict a marathon time based on a recent 10K time, but it does absolutely not guarantee anything. You should train accordingly.